The industry may have gotten ahead of the AI PC hype in 2024, analysts say, as new research from Forrester suggests 2025 will be the year of widespread adoption.
A report from the consultancy delves into some of the key barriers to widespread adoption of AI PCs and concludes that 2025 is much more likely to see a boom in sales and use cases.
While noting that AI-enabled PC adoption is ultimately “inevitable,” the Forrester team urged industry members to “resist the urge to invest this year,” imploring potential buyers or investors of IT wait 12 months.
The first notable barrier the report identifies is the lack of a “killer app” for the average IT worker, a reality that belies the obvious advantages of AI PCs for those with high-end computing requirements.
While certain roles, such as creatives, data scientists and developers, are expected to benefit more “substantially” from the arrival of the AI-enabled PC, there are not enough “breakthrough applications” for most IT workers. information.
Similarly, the benefits brought by AI PCs are not necessarily valid reasons for dramatically increased speed in purchase and adoption. While AI PCs offer a lot to improve the user experience, this is not something that tends to drive PC purchases.
Although some newer PC experiences benefit from an AI chip, according to the report, most may still run less efficiently on traditional CPUs and GPUs.
Certain platforms, such as Microsoft's Windows Studio Effects, “explicitly require” a neural processing unit (NPU), but this lends itself to largely cosmetic improvements.
AI capabilities like blue background, eye contact, framing, and voice focus are unlocked through this type of NPU use case, but none of these features are “revolutionary enough” to disrupt patterns. traditional purchasing.
“While PC user experience improvements with AI are important, what the industry is forgetting is that user experience improvements almost never change IT purchasing behavior,” said Andrew Hewitt, principal analyst. by Forrester.
AI-enabled PCs are not yet in IT purchasing strategies
IT decision makers (ITDMs) have already set most of their spending strategies for 2024, the report notes, and AI-enabled PCs are not yet high on the agenda.
Forrester cited that while 72% indicated an increased budget for PCs and operating systems from 2022 to 2023, most organizations set budget goals before enthusiasm for AI-enabled PCs became widespread.
In contrast, the report expects AI platform budgets to triple by 2024, skyrocketing cloud usage bills for enterprise workloads. By the time 2025 rolls around, this will provide ample reason for IT leaders to “save costs in the cloud by moving AI workloads to the PC.”
There are also many ITDMs who can resist the inevitable complexities associated with AI PC upgrades. With Windows 10 approaching the end of its lifeForrester expects many IT organizations to “align AI PC adoption with the next version of Windows 11.”
“While little is known about this upcoming release, Microsoft will likely focus its improvements on features that use an NPU,” the report states.
While the rise of AI PCs is well underway, the Forrester report points to some strong evidence of a slightly delayed process in an explosion of adoption and popularity.
“While we expect most IT organizations to eventually adopt AI-enabled PCs, mass adoption of AI-enabled PCs will not occur until 2025,” Hewitt said.
Business leaders should not rest on their laurels
Although the news that the review of AI PCs will be delayed by a year could lead to apathy among buyers, Forrester said those in the industry should “start preparing for 2025.”
In 2024, ITDMs should take an “exploratory and cautious approach” to this new technology, focusing on organizational education and readiness. According to the report, identifying those within the company who would currently benefit from an AI-enabled PC is a good starting point.
For example, applications for video/photo editing, music production, and graphic design have many use cases that can utilize an NPU, so staff in these areas would be on the front lines of organizational adoption of AI PCs.
“Due to the massive impact these features have on productivity, consider creatives as a first test group for the AI PC,” the report says.
Another key step to take in this preparatory year is to keep an eye on broader developments in the space, especially when it comes to new capabilities, applications or operating system (OS) features.
Forrester urged organizations to keep an eye out for “NPU-driven experiences within the operating system,” as well as “new AI capabilities embedded in key business applications.”
Adopting an AI PC will require a “vast ecosystem” of applications capable of utilizing the specific capabilities of an NPU, so companies would do well to inventory their applications to determine which of them could “benefit from an AI PC today.” “.
