tesla (TSLA) First-quarter global deliveries plummeted to the lowest level in nearly two years as quarterly production far exceeded unit sales, the electric vehicle giant reported Tuesday. TSLA shares fell on Tuesday.
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Tesla announced early Tuesday that it delivered 386,810 in the first quarter while producing 433,371 vehicles. The company delivered a total of 369,783 Model 3 and Model Y units along with 17,027 “other” vehicles.
Wall Street consensus expected first-quarter deliveries of 457,000 units, according to FactSet. That number started last week at 471,000 and fell steadily ahead of Tesla's global deliveries announcement. The 457,000 figure likely includes several analyst forecasts that have not been updated in weeks or months.
Actual predictions seemed to be more around Tesla's 422,875 Q1 2023 figure. The global electric vehicle giant hit a record 484,507 deliveries in Q4 2023. The previous quarterly delivery record was in the second quarter with 466,140. Troy Teslike, a respected source of Tesla delivery estimates and data tracking among retail Tesla investors, the final Q1 estimate is 409,000 deliveries. Teslike predicts that Tesla produced 429,954 vehicles in the first quarter.
However, Tesla's deliveries of 386,810 in the first quarter undercut even the lowest estimates and mark the lowest quarterly deliveries since 344,000 in the second quarter of 2022.
Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, a veteran Tesla bull, on Tuesday called the quarter an “absolute disaster” for Tesla “that's hard to explain.” The analyst said he remains bullish on Tesla in the long term.
“We view this as a pivotal moment in Tesla's history for Musk to turn things around and reverse the poor performance of the first quarter,” Ives wrote on Tuesday. “Otherwise, there could clearly be some darker days ahead that could alter Tesla's long-term narrative.”
Tesla China rivals Nio, Li Auto and XPeng surge in March deliveries
Tesla shares sank 5.7% to 165.23 during market action on Tuesday. On Monday, TSLA shares fell 0.3% to 175.22. Meanwhile, Cathie Wood and her ARK Invest fund piled into Tesla shares on Monday, purchasing 84,164 shares, according to the company's daily trading disclosure.
Full-Year EPS Predictions, But Q2 Looking Up?
With the first quarter over, analyst consensus now puts Tesla's 2024 earnings firmly below the 2023 level. That signals another year of earnings declines for this growth stock. Wall Street currently expects Tesla earnings per share of just $2.87 in 2024, according to FactSet. That would be an 8% decrease from $3.12 last year.
Wall Street consensus estimates for earnings per share for Tesla in 2024 are down nearly 25% from the end of 2023. Some analysts believe earnings could fall even further, potentially to around $2.26 per share for 2021.
However, with first-quarter deliveries completed, Tesla's business is expected to recover in the second quarter with higher sales of the Model 3 and Cybertruck.
Wall Street is currently forecasting deliveries of 510,000 units in the second quarter, according to FactSet. Troy Teslike estimates have Q2 deliveries totaling 460,000, which would be slightly below Q2 2023. Teslike has Cybertruck deliveries doubling from just over 4,000 in Q1 to 8,160 in the Q2 US Teslike also has US Model 3 sales growing 70% in Q2 compared to Q1 as production improves.
Meanwhile, Tesla increased its US prices for all versions of the Model Y on April 1. Tesla increased prices for Model Y vehicles in Europe on March 22. In China, Tesla raised prices for its entire Model Y line by around $690 in April.
To maintain sales momentum in 2023 in 2024, Tesla has aggressively reduced vehicle prices and offered discounts. As a result, auto gross margins, which peaked at 30% in the fourth quarter of 2021 amid the industry's chip shortage, have plummeted well below 20%.
Tesla continues to heavily discount inventory of Model Y vehicles in the US and other markets.
Tesla Stock Has Plunged in 2024, But At Least It's Cheaper, Right? No
Tesla stock performance
Last week, Tesla shares advanced 2.9% to 175.79, posting a second consecutive weekly gain as the electric vehicle company began rolling out its latest full self-driving (FSD) update to customers. TSLA stock is trading modestly below the 50-day moving average.
Emails from CEO Elon Musk, leaked on social media platforms, show that he is making it mandatory in North America to install and activate the latest version of FSD in vehicles and taking customers on a “short test drive before deliver the car.”
Tesla is also offering a free one-month trial of FSD in the US for new purchases or existing electric vehicles that are FSD compatible.
On March 15, Tesla shares fell 6.7% to 163.57, hitting new 2024 lows and levels not seen since May 2023. TSLA fell about 13% in March and is the index's biggest loser S&P 500 so far in 2024.
The electric vehicle giant ranks eighth among the 35 IBD members Automobile Manufacturers Industry Group. The stock has a Composite Rating of 32 out of a best possible rating of 99. Tesla stock also has a Relative Strength Rating of 10 and an EPS Rating of 67.
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