AI-related job losses in the UK could affect up to eight million people unless the government takes urgent action to address the skills gap, according to a new report.
An analysis by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) found that entry-level, part-time, and white-collar jobs are most at risk and impact women, younger workers, and those with lower wages the most.
The study evaluated 22,000 tasks spanning various roles in the UK economy and found that 11% of worker roles are already exposed to AI. Those most affected include “routine cognitive” tasks, such as database management, and “organizational and strategic” tasks, such as scheduling or inventory management.
However, more jobs could be put at risk as companies integrate existing AI technologies more deeply into operational processes, the study warned. In the long term, this could result in AI carrying out 59% of tasks and ultimately affecting higher-paying jobs.
“We could see jobs like copywriters, graphic designers and personal assistants being greatly affected by AI,” said IPPR senior researcher and report author Bhargav Srinivasa Desikan.
AI job losses: worst-case scenarios
The report sets out three potential scenarios where AI job losses occur. In the worst case scenario, the study said, there would be a “complete displacement” of the UK workforce, with all jobs at risk eventually being replaced.
In this scenario, around 7.9 million jobs could be lost nationwide without increasing GDP.
In the central scenario 4.4 million jobs disappeared, but with economic gains of £144 billion a year, or 6.3% of GDP.
Finally, the best case scenario, a “full increase”, would lead to no job losses, with GDP increasing by 4 per cent, or £92bn a year. Wage increases for workers could be more than 30% in some cases, but they could also be zero.
Impact of AI job losses can be mitigated through training
Without government action and with companies left to fend for themselves, the worst-case scenario is a real possibility, the IPPR warned.
“Generative AI that already exists could cause major disruption to the labor market or could massively boost economic growth; either way, it will be a game-changer for millions of us. Many companies are already investing in it, and it has the potential to accelerate many more tasks as more companies adopt it,” said Carsten Jung, author of the report and senior economist at IPPR.
“History shows that technological transition can be a blessing if managed well, or can end in disruption if left to develop unchecked. In fact, some occupations could be hit hard by generative AI, starting with jobs administrative”.
The IPPR urged the government to develop an industrial strategy for AI focused on employment.
This, the think tank said, should support green jobs, which it noted are less vulnerable than others to automation. Similarly, the government was recommended to enact fiscal policy measures, such as tax incentives or subsidies, to encourage increased employment rather than outright displacement.
Nikolaz Foucaud, EMEA general manager at Coursera, echoed the report's calls for greater attention to training and upskilling.
Foucaud said that while AI job losses are likely in the coming years, proactive efforts now will be critical to reducing the impact on the workforce and allowing workers to take on new roles.
“The IPPR report's warning about potential job losses due to AI points to a growing urgency to accelerate AI training and upskilling for UK workers,” he said.
“The data serves as a stark reminder that companies cannot afford to be complacent about the impact of AI on existing jobs.
“AI presents a golden opportunity for business growth and increased productivity. For lower-skilled jobs, in particular, it could save workers time on repetitive tasks and provide opportunities for broader career progression. However, the effective adoption of AI, designed to complement and not replace humans, depends on a workforce equipped with the necessary expertise.”
Foucaud said the report's indication that women are specifically at risk should also raise serious concerns.
The IPPR report's findings on this front align with similar research from Code First Girls this year, which found that tech workers fear the increased use of generative AI could “drive women out of the workforce.” .
“Organizations must ensure that women do not miss out on the opportunity to benefit from upskilling in AI and this must include flexible training options,” she said. “This will be vital to ensuring women's careers evolve alongside AI rather than facing greater risk of being replaced by it.”
