PC sales have recovered from their worst decline on record, and Windows 11 hardware updates and the arrival of high-end AI-enabled PCs are likely to further boost business interest this year.
Technology analyst firms Canalys and IDC published their separate assessments of the PC market in the first quarter of 2024, and both showed growth in sales compared to the same quarter a year earlier.
Global shipments of desktop and laptop computers grew 3.2% to 57.2 million units in the first quarter of 2024, according to Canalys. It said shipments of laptops (which include mobile workstations) rose 4.2% to 45.1 million units, while shipments of desktop computers (which include desktop workstations) decreased by 4.2%. 0.4% to 12.1 million units.
While the growth was modest, it reflects the ongoing recovery in PC demand, which will likely accelerate throughout the year, he said.
Growth in the first quarter of 2024 bodes well for a strong full-year PC market, said Ishan Dutt, principal analyst at Canalys, who said the strength of the hardware upgrade opportunity, particularly by companies, is beginning to manifest itself.
Dutt said the market will strengthen as customers prioritize upgrades in preparation for their large-scale transition to Windows 11. The current PC installed base is larger and older than ever, meaning there is a huge opportunity for hardware manufacturers, he said.
The broader introduction of AI-enabled PCs in the second half of the year will also give a boost to the market and give those users who have put off buying new PCs during the post-pandemic recession a reason to upgrade. Canalys predicts that nearly 50 million PCs shipped in 2024 will be AI-enabled.
PC makers are interested in the emerging concept of AI PCs, which typically includes some form of dedicated AI accelerators such as neural processing units (NPUs), plus new features for productivity and personalization.
Dutt said a general trend Canalys has also seen post-pandemic is the continued preference for laptops over desktops.
Laptops have averaged around 75-80% of total PC shipments over the quarters since the start of Covid, driven largely by the shift towards hybrid working and learning. This represents an increase from 65-70% before the pandemic, he told ITPro.
Industry sectors where desktop computers were popular, such as in finance and the public sector, have been forced to move toward more mobile form factors, and part of that trend has endured until now, he said.
“Within laptops, we've seen greater success with thin and light form factors, with ultra-thin laptops accounting for a larger share of the market in recent years.”
According to Canalys, Lenovo led the PC market in the quarter with a 24% market share, 8% growth and shipping 13.7 million laptops and desktops.
Second-place HP posted stable performance, shipping 12 million units. Dell, in third place, saw its shipments fall 2% year-on-year. Apple came in fourth place with 2.5% growth, driven by the launch of the new MacBook Air that arrived at the end of the quarter.
Dutt said Lenovo remains resilient thanks to the breadth of its portfolio across product categories, end-user segments, price bands, as well as its more balanced geographic strength, with its businesses in China and Asia-Pacific helping to offset some of the weaker performance elsewhere. in recent quarters.
IDC also released its analysis for the first quarter of this year, noting slightly lower growth of 1.5% year-over-year and PC shipments reaching 59.8 million.
“The growth was largely achieved thanks to simple year-over-year comparisons, as the market fell 28.7% during the first quarter of 2023, which was the lowest point in PC history,” the analysts noted. .
The first quarter of 2023 was something of a perfect storm for the PC industry, with weak demand, excess inventory, and a worsening economic outlook of high inflation and high interest rates leading to a massive drop in prices. shipments as businesses and consumers tightened their belts.
A year later, these pressures have at least begun to ease. IDC said global PC shipments finally returned to pre-pandemic levels as the first quarter of this year approached the 60.5 million units shipped in the first quarter of 2019.
As inflation begins to decline, PC shipments have begun to recover in most regions, leading to growth in the Americas as well as Europe, the Middle East and Africa, IDC said.
China is the largest consumer of desktop PCs, and weak demand there led to another quarter of declines in global desktop PC shipments. Desktop shipments were already under pressure due to the rise of the laptop as the preferred form factor for most users.
“Despite China's difficulties, the recovery is expected to continue into 2024, as new AI-enabled PCs hit shelves later this year and business buyers begin upgrading PCs they bought during the pandemic” said Jitesh Ubrani, research manager for Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers at IDC. .
Ubrani said AI PCs are also expected to have higher prices, which will provide more opportunities for PC and component makers.
According to IDC, Lenovo ranked first and outperformed the market largely due to the sharp drop in shipments experienced in 1Q23. Apple's strong growth was also due to a “huge drop” in the previous year, he said.
